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US natural gas futures are down 5% due to increased production, forecasts are modest

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US natural gas futures are slowly increasing in production,

Over the next two weeks, we expect milder weather and lower demand than previously expected.

This decline occurs despite the surge in the amount of gas flowing into US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.

After maintenance outages at some Gulf Coast plants, the plant will be nearly seven weeks high.

Mild weather is expected next week, but it is still hot in many parts of the country

now.

In the spot market, the next day’s electricity at PJM West Hub Gas at Dominion South Hub

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Pennsylvania has jumped to the highest level of housing since the February 2021 freeze.

Companies start air conditioners to dissipate heat.

The use of high air conditioning also pushed Texas’s peak electricity demand to May records.

Thursday. Forecast demand for state grid operators can exceed Friday’s record peak.

US gas futures delivered in June fell 37.9 cents (4.6%) to $ 7.929 per million dollars.

British Thermal Unit (mmBtu), Eastern Standard Time 9:17 am (1317 GMT).

Despite the fall on Friday, contracts still rose about 4% for the week after the last fall of about 5%.

week.

Gas was trading at about $ 28 per mmBtu in Europe and $ 22 in Asia.Contract with the United States

On May 6, it rose to a record high of nearly $ 9 for the first time in 13 years.

The United States is the number one producer in the world and everything

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Gas required for domestic use, while capacity constraints are hampering the export of more LNG.

According to data provider Refinitiv, average gas production in the 48 states of the continental United States reached 94.9 billion cubic meters.

Feet per day (bcfd) from 94.5bcfd in April to the past in May. This is compared to the monthly record of 96.1bcfd.

November 2021.

Refinitiv predicts that US average gas demand, including exports, will remain close to 89.7bcfd this week.

Then slide to 88.7bcfd in 2 weeks.

The average amount of gas flowing into US LNG export plants has risen from 12.2bcfd to 12.3bcfd so far in May.

During April. This is compared to the March monthly record of 12.9bcfd.The United States can turn about 13.2

Gas bcfd to LNG.

But every day, LNG feed gas was expected to reach a high of 13.3bcfd for nearly seven weeks on Friday.

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The United States will soon be unable to produce any more LNG, so work with its allies

European Union (EU) countries and other countries

Russia’s dependence on gas after Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24th.

Russia’s gas exports to Europe rose from about 7.8bcfd on Wednesday to about 8.1bcfd on Thursday.

Three major routes to Germany: Northstream 1 (Russia-Germany), Yamal (Russia-Belarus-Poland-Germany), and

Russia-Ukraine-Slovakia-Czech Republic-Germany route. This is compared to the May 2021 average of 11.9bcfd.

Gas stockpiles in Northwestern Europe (Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands)

It is about 14% below the average for the five years (2017-2021) during this period, and 39% below the five years.

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According to Refinitiv, the standard for mid-March. Storage was now about 37% of total capacity.

This is healthier than US inventories, which are about 15% below the five-year standard.

European gas prices kept LNG imports strong while Russia continued to supply fuel through its pipeline.

Ended week Ended week 1 year ago 5 years

May 20th May 13th May 20th Average

(Forecast) (Actual) May 20

Weekly US Natural Gas Storage Changes (bcf): +95 +89 +109 +97

Total US Natural Gas in Storage (bcf): 1,827 1,732 2,199 2,139

Total US storage and 5-year average -14.6% -15.2%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) The day before the day This month The previous year 5 years

Last year’s average

2021 (2017-2021)

Henry Hub 7.948.312.96 3.73 2.89

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Title transfer function (TTF) 28.05 27.88 8.88 16.04 7.49

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 21.79 21.17 9.65 18.00 8.95

Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Total forecast for 2 weeks The day before the day before the previous year 10 years 30 years

Norm Norm

US GFS HDD 36 31 43 49 44

US GFS CDD 128132 86 96102

US GFS TDD 164 163 129 145 146

Refinitiv US Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecast

Previous week Current week Next week 5 years this week

Last year’s average

Moon

US supply (bcfd)

Dry food production in the 48 states of the continental United States 95.295.195.1 92.0 83.9

US imports from Canada 7.97.67.9 7.2 7.6

US LNG import 0.00.00.0 0.0 0.1

Total supply of the United States 103.2102.7103.0 99.2 92.6

US demand (bcfd)

US exports to Canada 2.92.82.7 2.1 2.1

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US exports to Mexico 6.26.26.2 6.1 4.8

US LNG exports 12.212.213.1 10.5 5.1

US Commercial 6.05.05.1 4.9 5.6

US Housing 7.04.74.8 4.7 6.7

US power plant 28.231.430.3 25.4 26.0

US Industry 21.020.720.9 21.4 20.9

US plant fuel 4.74.7 4.7 4.7 4.6

US pipe distribution 1.81.81.8 1.8 1.8

US vehicle fuel 0.10.10.1 0.1 0.1

Total US consumption 69.068.567.7 63.0 65.7

Aggregate demand in the United States 90.389.689.7 81.7 77.7

US Weekly Power Generation by Fuel – EIA

Ended Week Ended Week Ended Weekend Ended Week Ended Week Ended

May 20th May 13th May 6th April 29th April 22nd

Wind 111513 16 16

Solar 444 4 4

Hydro 7 7 7 7 7

Other 222 2 2

Oil 000 0 0

Natural gas 383436 33 33

Coal 2018 19 19 19

Nuclear 19 1920 19 19

SNL US Natural Gas Next Day Price ($ per mmBtu)

The day before the hub day

Henry Hub 8.21 8.53

Transco Z6 New York 7.82 7.75

PG & E City Gate 9.78 9.98

Dominion South 7.62 7.55

Chicago City Gate 7.93 8.08

Algonquin City Gate 7.94 8.04

SoCal Citygate 8.19 8.68

Waha Hub 7.33 8.01

AECO 4.58 6.41

SNL US Power Next Day Price ($ per MW)

Hub day

New England 70.00 78.75

PJM West 153.50 131.75

Elcot North 80.00 77.75

Mid C 18.25 19.19

Palo Verde 37.50 41.00

SP-15 51.25 53.00

(Report by Scott DiSavino, edited by Kirsten Donovan)

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US natural gas futures are down 5% due to increased production, forecasts are modest

Source link US natural gas futures are down 5% due to increased production, forecasts are modest

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