Has Inflation Peaked in the US? – Bitcoin Magazine
“Fed Watch” is a macro podcast that stays true to Bitcoin’s rebellious nature. Each episode questions the mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events on a macro basis around the world, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
Watch this episode on YouTube or Rumble
Listen to the episode here:
CK and I had the privilege of sitting together in this episode. Andreas StenoEditor of Real Vision, co-host of the podcast “Macro Trading Floor” and author of the “Steno Signals” blog on Substack. Our discussion centers on the energy situation in Europe, but we start by talking about the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate hikes. Steno has extensive knowledge about Bitcoin and his podcast ‘Macro His Trading Floor’ is hosted by Blockworks.
Federal Reserve Funds Federal Reserve by 75 Basis Points
The timing of this interview was a coincidence. Because I was able to speak with Steno right after the Fed announced its policy decision, even before Steno released his roundup on “Real Vision.”
We start by getting Steno’s broad reaction to the Fed’s policy decisions. He said Chairman Jerome Powell had made it clear that the market didn’t want to bet on a pivot: the dotplot shows that the FOMC member average is 100 percent higher than the Fed’s forecast that he will by early 2023. He expects rates to rise to 4.5%. Also, the intent is very clear, wanting to drive down asset prices and crush demand.
Interpretation of the Consumer Price Index
The Federal Reserve is trying to be very clear about its goals and how. Also trying to be very clear about the cause of the hawkish policy trajectory of being above the target CPI, he asked Steno what he thinks of the US CPI.
His thoughts are consistent with mine that the CPI appears to have peaked. So if the lagging portion of the basket is the only component still rising, it must mean that the price impulse is reversing.
Steno also said he expects the CPI drop to catch most people off guard, citing a number of reasons.
Is Europe’s Energy Crisis Exaggerated?
The topic I was most excited to talk about was the European energy crisis. Steno has lived in Europe and studied energy flow extensively. In his interviews, he shows natural gas reserves and flows from around the world. It was also surprising to learn that perhaps the biggest factor in the extraordinary price rise was the fact that European leaders had ordered countries to fill up their reserves in a hurry. We now purchase additional natural gas. Currently, reserves are nearly full and natural gas use is pre-peak, which could have the opposite effect of plunging prices.
All in all, Steno’s story gave us the picture that the situation is not as dire as the mainstream financial press would have us believe. This winter has been a bit of a pain, and the economy has already experienced some impact on things like the chemical industry, but it’s not the civilization-ending event that many think.
Of course, in this episode we talk about the potential collapse of Bitcoin and the Euro currency. but to hear it, you have to listen.
This is a guest post by Ansel Lindner. Opinions expressed are entirely his own and do not necessarily reflect those of his BTC Inc. or Bitcoin Magazine.
Has Inflation Peaked in the US? – Bitcoin Magazine
Source link Has Inflation Peaked in the US? – Bitcoin Magazine
