Will Bitcoin See a Repeat in November 2018?

Bitcoin price is just below $19,000 at the time of writing and not far from the local low of $18,300. BTC price plummeted to just that price level when the data was released.

Unexpectedly for many, a very quick rebound has caught the shorts off-guard.At the moment Bitcoin price is at its There is not much room to go below the level. Additionally, a look at the on-chain suggests another crash is possible in the short term, but there are also positive signals.

according to CryptoQuant shows a bear market signal when the realized price of all long-term holders (blue line) exceeds the realized price of all coins purchased (red line) and BTC price falls below the realized price of long-term holders. will be And the realized price of all coins.

According to analysis, Bitcoin price has been in a bear market for 124 days. In this respect, a fall from $6,000 to $3,000 is comparable to a price fall from $30,000 to $18,000. The drop from $6,000 to $3,000 during the last bear market was 50%.

That said, the bottom may still be out of sight:

The drop from $30.7k to $18.2k was 41%. A 50% drop from $30.7k brings BTC to $15k (-18% from current price). Similar to the delta price of $14.7k.

Bitcoin’s Contradictory On-Chain Data

For Santiment, another leading on-chain analytics service says the Bitcoin market should ideally see accumulation at this point, but smaller traders remain bearish and doom and gloom. is spreading.

However, conflicting data have emerged on this point. Thus, Bitcoin small to medium addresses (0.1 to 10 BTC) recently hit a record high of 15.9% of available supply. At the same time, the 100-10,000 BTC whale hit his 3-year low of 45.6% of supply.

On the bullish side, Bitcoin saw a massive outflow of coins from exchanges on October 18th. Santimento hit 40,572 BTC, hitting his highest daily volume in four months. This has reduced the supply of coins on all exchanges to 8.48%. This means that the risk of future sales is at least somewhat reduced.

Bullish data is also reported by Glassnode, the third leading on-chain data provider. The stagnant supply of Bitcoin for the past six months is nearing an all-time low. It currently stands at 18.12% of the circulating supply, or approximately 3,485,000 BTC.glass node describe:

Historically, a long bear market is usually followed by a very small amount of mobile supply.

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research LLC, recently said: quoted The old trader adage “Don’t short a dull market” may apply to the Bitcoin market more than ever.

According to his analysis, realized volatility, which stands for backwardation or actual volatility, is at a two-year low and one of the lowest levels in history.

The market bottoms out of apathy rather than excitement. I am indifferent to BTC and ETH. The S&P 500 is pretty much the opposite, with prices moving like a video game. This could be another sign that the TradFi/Crypto close ties are broken. If so, this is long-term bullish for cryptocurrencies.

Variance in volatility is therefore an indication of this shift, which could eventually trigger a long-term positive trend.