In the three Conservative leadership races nearly seven years since Stephen Harper took his place in the 2015 election, the dominant formula for those seeking to replace him has been the same. . Center in time for the general election.
Both Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole have tried this approach. However, Scheer failed to fully sell the pivot, and O’Toole pivoted abruptly, thus losing support for the Populist Party from his “true blue” supporters.
In recent months, political watchers have been trying to figure out exactly when and how Pierre Polivre will launch a similar move. After embracing the “freedom convoy” and trading in conspiracy theories on the World Economic Forum, can he even center that pivot?
The answer, as it is now abundantly clear, is that he wasn’t even going to try. His campaign seeks to build a new kind of conservative coalition instead of trying to win over the current liberal voters and red Conservatives.
This isn’t as crazy as it sounds.As Eoin Higgins wrote Atlantic There have been quite a few anti-vaxers on the political left in the last year, and they may be drawn to Polivre’s message of freedom and anti-delegation. “These crunchy anti-vaxers are coalescing into loose political groups targeting COVID health measures and restrictions as an indication of government overreach and medical tyranny,” he wrote. As expected, it’s falling down the far-right rabbit hole.”
Deliberately or not, Poilievre’s campaign draws on something called the horseshoe theory. This suggests that the extreme left and extreme right are not actually on opposite sides of the linear spectrum, but bend towards each other at the extrema. Two years after a pandemic that undermined trust in government agencies and expertise on both the right and the left, now might be the perfect time to test that theory.
Recent results from regular Abacus Data polling confirm that. It shows an 11-point swing in support for the Conservative Party of Canada among voters aged 18-29, with most of that change coming at the expense of Jagmeet Singh’s NDP. The rate fell from 31% in January to just 21% in July, while the CPC surged from 20% to 31% (with Liberal support falling 1 percentage point to 29%). ).
This could be statistical noise, a rare outlier poll that occurs roughly once in every 20 polls. But Polivre’s constant message of economic freedom and opportunity, particularly his line of attack on house prices and those blamed for them, resonates with a generation that feels like they can’t take a break. It is much more likely that there are
Part of the credit for this unexpected political realignment belongs to Singh. Like Poilievre, he talks a lot about inflation these days and, like Poilievre, gladly blames it on the “elite”. “Ottawa’s elites are outraged by his NDP proposal to send inflation aid to needy families, but are silent as billions of dollars in corporate benefits are handed out,” he said. Mr Singh said. murmured soon.
But this is like trying to invite people to a party that is being hosted by someone else. It addresses the cost of living concerns many Canadians are feeling more strongly and effectively these days than the NDP, which is supposed to be the party it represents.As national post Sabrina Maddow wrote in a recent column that the Poirivre campaign is “stealing left-wing populists from the NDP, who are more interested in effective social justice than real economic justice. They make up the largest share of potential voters.” When it comes to getting the younger generation, this could be your ticket to 24 Sussex.”
Opinion: One thing should be pretty clear by now: Pierre Polivre plays to win and shouldn’t be taken lightly, writes @NatObserver columnist @maxfawcett
But one thing about young voters is that it’s hard to get them to come and vote. Just ask the federal NDP. As COVID-19’s most troubling restrictions roll further behind our collective, there is no guarantee that Poilievre’s horseshoe strategy will continue to pay off, nor that progressive politicians will not win back young voters.
But one thing is pretty clear by now. That said, Pierre Polivre is playing to win and may have found a new way to do it.
Pierre Poirivre’s Horseshoe Strategy | Canada’s National Observer: News and Analysis
Source link Pierre Poirivre’s Horseshoe Strategy | Canada’s National Observer: News and Analysis