Dreams of LNG exports will undermine BC’s ability to pursue other opportunities

tomtidgewellNovember 16, 2022

Opinion: If LNG Canada’s Phase 2 expansion progresses and uses electricity rather than natural gas for liquefaction (to meet provincial climate goals), three more Site C equivalents of electricity by 2040 will become necessary.

Foreign Minister Melanie Jolie was greeted by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida during a visit to Tokyo last month to discuss how Canada’s LNG could separate Asian nations from their dependence on Russia’s natural gas. rice field. Photo: Kazunari Kato /Poole/AFP via Getty Images

The federal government appears poised to double LNG exports to help friendly nations weather the current energy crisis after months of turmoil.Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland recently announced Canada will expedite mining and energy projects important to Canada’s allies. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Melanie Jolie was in South Korea and Japan. discuss How Canadian LNG can wean Asian countries off their dependence on Russian natural gas.

Suspicious move.Just two weeks ago, the International Energy Agency Conclusion Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will mark the end of an era when countries rapidly adopted renewable energy in the face of rising fossil fuel prices and rapidly expanding demand for natural gas.

And there’s another, less-talked-about, more local issue. It’s electricity.

For the LNG industry to meet BC’s climate goals and meet the federal government’s imminent emission caps for the oil and gas sector, nearly every part of the LNG supply chain, from wellheads to export facilities, will need to be electrified.

The problem is that BC does not plan to generate enough electricity to meet its 2030 climate goals.

When the LNG industry consumes all of British Columbia’s available power, it leaves no power for other economic opportunities, from sustainable mining for battery materials to producing green hydrogen. Number of ‘Transition Opportunity Firms’ in B.C. Increases almost 500% for the past 20 years, From about 30 in 2000 to about 170 in 2020, But what if you can’t power the next 500%?

BC Hydro is Conclusion To stay on track to meet climate goals, BC will need 1.5 times more electricity than Site C by 2030, or about 12% more electricity than is currently planned.

Adding LNG to the mixture makes the problem worse. If LNG Canada’s Phase 2 expansion progresses (with the necessary approvals) and uses electricity instead of natural gas for liquefaction (because it needs to meet provincial climate goals), three more by 2040. Site C equivalent power is required. — most of which will be needed in the early 2030s.

To meet its 2030 needs, BC Hydro will purchase additional electricity from neighboring jurisdictions to make up the shortfall in the state. The problem with this plan is that it is also someone else’s plan. Much like British Columbia, most western states have climate plans that require large amounts of clean power to power EVs, heat pumps, and disconnect industries from fossil fuels.

In fact, the Western Power Coordination Council, which coordinates the power grids in the western United States and Canada, decision During times of high demand, no subregion within its coverage area produces enough power to meet its own needs. They all rely on imports to avoid outages. All jurisdictions look to import markets, resulting in higher costs of electricity that could be passed on to the people of British Columbia.

recent california Conclusion By 2025, Site C will be short of almost double power, and is currently short of enough summer capacity to maintain lighting during heatwaves, wildfires, or other extreme events. The impact of power shortages should not be underestimated.California residents annually rate goes up Between 4% and 9% over the next few years.

The transition from fossil fuels to clean energy is the greatest economic opportunity for our generation. The incoming Prime Minister, David Eby, should feel empowered to set B.C. on a new economic path, starting with developing a comprehensive energy plan that aligns with the state’s climate goals.

As for the federal government, the opportunity cost to British Columbia’s economy needs to be considered before diving headlong into LNG expansion. There are better ways to help your friends.

Mark Zacharias is Executive Director of Clean Energy Canada, a program of the Morris J. Wosk Center for Dialogue at Simon Fraser University, and Merran Smith is Chief Innovation Officer.